Owing to the late cancellation of the Grand Prix of Bahrain due to force majeure, which was followed by a swift party in delight losing quite possibly the most boring race in F1 history, the F1 2011 season will now start next weekend in Australia, where all good F1 season should start – Albert Park, Melbourne. The off-season has been very interesting; testing has thrown up a few surprises and there have been plenty of updates since the first test, so predicting the season ahead is difficult – but I’m going to try anyway!
Changes Since 2010
There haven’t been any major changes from 2010 in the big teams; Red Bull, McLaren, Ferrari and Mercedes line up with the same drivers as last year. Renault – or Lotus Renault GP as they like to be called – would have lined up with the same drivers, but Robert Kubica’s rally accident put paid to that. Nick Heidfeld takes his place in the first Renault this season.
Other notable changes include Pastor Maldonado replacing Nico Hulkenberg in what is, essentially, a sponsorship drive, and Paul di Resta replacing Tonio Liuzzi, who has moved to the HRT. Toro Rosso keep the same line-up as last year, although Alguersuari and Buemi will need to impress to fend off Australian Daniel Ricciardo; Sergio Perez takes the place Pedro de la Rosa and and Nick Heidfeld shared at Sauber last year. Lotus keep their trusty pairing – Jarno Trulli and Heikki Kovalainen – and Jerome d’Ambrosio becomes the first Belgian driver in Formula 1 since Philippe Adams appeared at Estoril for Lotus in 1994, pairing Timo Glock at Virgin. Finally, Narain Karthikeyan makes an F1 comeback with HRT, having previously driven for Jordan in 2005 before dropping into A1GP obscurity.
There are track changes too: obviously, the Bahrain Grand Prix is not opening the season and in all likelihood will be cancelled, but unlikely missed; India hosts its first Grand Prix (round seventeen) and the last two rounds, in – Abu Dhabi and Interlagos – swap places, allowing Brazil to close the season, which is a good thing as races in São Paulo are usually entertaining and unpredictable. The Tilkedrome of Abu Dhabi is about as entertaining as watching a dustman walk down the street.
2010 also saw the end of Bridgestone tyres, replaced in 2011 by Pirelli, who promise to provide less durable rubber than before, which should provide as much consternation as entertainment in places. KERS, whilst not officially banned last year, was not used by FOTA as part of the Resource Restriction Agreement in 2010, but is back on the table this year. HRT have fallen out with FOTA and left them, which, if they had any money, could make things interesting. But they don’t, so it won’t. So-called “double diffusers” are banned, but trick exhausts are all over the shop, flexi wings show no sign of going away and the all-new Drag Reduction System debuts, which may or may not improve overtaking opportunities.
Following? Oh, good. Well then, let’s move on to the teams and drivers, and how they may fare this season…
Red Bull
Red Bull enter 2011 as the reigning champions. Despite looking like throwing the championship away for most of last season, they managed to land both the Drivers’ and Constructors’ Championships. Although Webber came close to claiming the crown last season, you would expect Vettel to have the upper hand this year and Red Bull look to have the fastest car in testing, so you would expect Vettel to start the season as favourite. It would be a mistake to discount Webber, but he is definitely fighting an uphill battle to challenge for the title come Brazil. In Adrian Newey, Red Bull have the most coveted and decorated designer in F1 at the moment, and it would be surprising if Red Bull were unable to keep up with other teams as the development race continues throughout the year.
Ferrari
Fernando Alonso came from a long way back to lead going in to the final round last season, only to find the Drivers’ Championship slip through his grasp at the last. Ferrari seem to have rediscovered their direction since the middle of last year – perhaps helped by the influence of Alonso in the team – and look certain to challenge this season. Massa struggled with tyres and in coming back from a serious head injury last season, but will really need to up his game this year. He will struggle to keep up with Alonso, but he needs to at least be close to him on the track at the end of the race, preferably only one place behind, if he’s going to have any chance of keeping a Ferrari drive, because last year, he was – sadly – a liability to the team, and they have demonstrated a great deal of faith in keeping him on.
McLaren
McLaren have the strongest line-up in Formula 1, no question, but also the best balanced. Button and Hamilton both performed very well to get as close to the Red Bulls and Alonso last season, in a car that simply wasn’t as good, stable or predictable. It was a harsh car over the smallest of bumps and was possibly the result of a design that chased after wind tunnel numbers rather than an integrated approach that worked on track. That said, both drivers had their struggles for which they will need to improve: Button struggled to make tyres work in qualifying and Hamilton’s racecraft in the title run-in was distinctly unimpressive. If they can improve on this, they are as good as anyone out there on track.
Unfortunately, their car isn’t. It has proved unreliable, unable to keep its tyres from going off on long runs and is slow over one lap. The team fixed an upgrade that seemed to alleviate some of these issues on the last day in Barcelona, but they are still nowhere near the front. Whatever people say about McLaren’s ability to develop a car, they will struggle this year. They have a fundamental weakness somewhere in their design philosophy, and have done since 2009. They badly need to sort it out, because Red Bull and Ferrari are ahead of them and many teams behind are closing up, and even passing them. That said, Martin Whitmarsh seems confident that the car will be a second faster in Melbourne than in testing, so if he’s right, they could be neck and neck with Mercedes for third, with Renault potentially in the mix too.
Hard to see which driver will come out on top this year; Hamilton is a good qualifier, but Button definitely out-raced his younger team-mate on a number of occasions last year. It will be interesting to watch…Button doesn’t get nearly enough credit for his Prost-like driving. Also hard to know which driver will win the F1 Moaners’ World Championship, though it’s hard to look past McLaren in this regard!
Mercedes
Mercedes – previously Brawn GP, Honda, BAR and Tyrrell before that! – managed to beat Renault to fourth place last year thanks mainly to Nico Rosberg, as Michael Schumacher struggled more than many expected on his return to F1. However, Schumacher showed glimpses of his former self, with a slick move on Alonso in Monaco – harshly deleted from the record books in a rare case of the FIA enforcing the intention rather than the actuality of the rules – and an astonishingly brutal, though unsuccessful, attempt to scare former Ferrari team-mate Rubens Barrichello into withdrawing from an overtaking manoeuvre in Hungary. This year, Schumacher seems much happier, a little ahead of Rosberg in testing, and the car, which had been looking a little slow in early tests, ended Barcelona fastest.
In reality, Red Bull are ahead of Mercedes, and likely Ferrari too, but with Mercedes in touch not far behind the Scuderia. I’m going to stick my neck out and say Schumacher will edge Rosberg this year AND manage to get on the top step of the podium too. It’s as much a heart prediction as a head one, but my head says that, over the course of nineteen races, he’ll get there.
(Lotus) Renault
Sadly and unavoidably, Renault’s season will be a case of what might have been. The car looks good, but owing to Robert Kubica’s rally accident, they will not hit the heights they would hope from a chassis that looks impressive. Petrov will be blown out of the water by Heidfeld, but Heidfeld is no match for Kubica. He will manage solid points, but realistically, Renault will struggle to get even many podiums this year. The departure of Bob Bell to Mercedes will likely impact the team too.
Williams
Last year, Williams took their first pole in five years. One month later, they released Nico Hulkenberg, who took that pole in Brazil. They have a lead driver in Rubens Barrichello who is fast, consistent, hungry and a great technical leader in the team, but who has maybe only one more season after this left. Their second driver, Pastor Maldonado, whilst the GP2 champion, doesn’t strike me as an F1 flyer.
The car this year does look very good, and was looking like the third or fourth fastest car at one point, but with improvements from Mercedes and likely McLaren, they’ll be fighting Renault for fifth. Barrichello may close any small performance gap on Nick Heidfeld, but reliability looks like it may be an issue for Williams, and if they’re to have any chance of beating Renault, they’ll need to sort that out. They’ll also need to manage the degradation of the Pirelli tyres, but if they can, watch out for Rubens – he can still do the job.
Force India
Force India were beaten to sixth in the Constructors’ Championship at the end of last season. Sadly, they look like slipping backwards this year. No real direction, an inconsistent – if quick – driver in Adrian Sutil and a rookie in Paul di Resta. Aerodynamically, the car has never been wonderful and has rather lived off of the peak power of the Mercedes plant. The drivers have been complaining about the car in testing and I don’t think there’s enough depth in the team technically compared to other teams. I can see Force India falling backwards. They’ll certainly be in a fight with Sauber and Toro Rosso at best.
Sauber
Sauber have an intriguing driver line-up. Kamui Kobayashi is fast, aggressive and great fun to watch. Sergio Perez is the most promising rookie in F1 this year. The car strong, but then it did last year too – and then we got to Australia, it was a dog and everyone realised it had been running light in testing. So, I’ll reserve judgement for now, but if the car is up to the job, the drivers are well worth watching!
Toro Rosso
Toro Rosso have two young drivers, a comparatively small budget – despite the Red Bull links – and have to design their car by themselves. However, they do have a very promising driver on their books in Daniel Ricciardo, and the new car does look faster than last year. It directs the airflow nicely to the rear of the car and seems well balanced. Watch out for them. Alguersuari will come out on top of Buemi, who I suspect will not hold on to his race seat until the end of the season.
(Team) Lotus
Team Lotus will be looking to take a step forward this year. They have a fantastic driving line-up in Kovalainen and Trulli, a proficient technical director in Mike Gascoyne and a solid base from last year. They will be looking to mix it with the midfield. I expect them to move ahead of Force India, any more than that may prove beyond them for this year though. Will be interesting to see which driver comes out on top of this one – a good year for Kovalianen and a few teams further forward could start to take more notice of him again. He’s never quite fulfilled his potential.
HRT
HRT lucked into 12th place in the Constructors’ Championship last year. They’ll need that luck again this year, because on merit, they should be 13th. There really is nothing to say about them…although the livery does remind me of Super Aguri.
Virgin
Virgin are determined to design their car using CFD, with no wind tunnel design at all. They also have a small budget, but quite frankly, the rest of the F1 fraternity are sceptical about CFD-only design, so Virgin’s hopes for this year seem to be limited to beating HRT. Quite frankly, there is little to say about them. They will be at the back. They have a 50/50 chance of finishing last in the championship. If they want to compete in F1 on any scale, they need to use a wind tunnel.
Championship Predictions
Everyone is going to pick Vettel as champion this year, Personally, I think if the Ferrari is within touching distance of the Red Bull in race pace – which we still do not know – then Alonso will nick it. It’s a big if. But it will be between Vettel and Alonso. Red Bull will win the Constructors’ Championship without a shadow of a doubt.
Noelinho’s Australian Picks
I’m not going to make a separate post for the Australian Grand Prix, so here’s my tips for the weekend:
- Pole: Sebastian Vettel
- Sebastian Vettel
- Fernando Alonso
- Mark Webber
Schumacher will finish fourth, if he can avoid tripping over anyone. Now watch, see how my picks turn into a turn one disaster… and I salute you for reading this far down! You are dedicated indeed.