I have, of late, been fairly on-the-mark with my political predictions. When many people predicted, at the start of the Crewe and Nantwich by-election, that Labour could hold the seat, I scoffed at the thought. As the campaign continued, and Labour members realised that winning was not the most likely of possibilities, I predicted a 6,000 majority for the Conservatives. People scoffed. “You’re just being pessimistic. It can’t be that bad.” It wasn’t – it was worse.
When David Davies resigned his seat in Haltemprice and Howden, people jumped up to attack Davies as opportunistic, trying to undermine David Cameron, trying to grab attention. They didn’t take him seriously. They thought David Davies could be cast as a loony. I saw a man who was standing by his convictions, and those alone. A man who wasn’t going to get rolled over. I saw Labour’s refusal to stand as a big mistake. I still think it was a big mistake, albeit one that hasn’t hurt them as much as it could have – but it will continue to hover in the background.
I knew, in all probability, that Boris Johnson would win the London mayoral elections, although I tried my best to ignore it and convince myself that Ken Livingstone could, like he had many times before, defied the Labour Party – and its electoral fortunes – and snatch victory. But even for Red Ken, that was always going to be one step too far.
In Henley, everyone knew it would be bad. Hardly a “natural” Labour area – but something I’ll come back to. The point here, is that these things were all bad for the Labour Party.
But Glasgow East was different. No-one predicted Glasgow East would go. No Labour people predicted it. No SNP people really seemed to truly believe it would happen, but were certainly confident they would get close. Me? I thought they’d get within, depending upon turnout, of course, 2,000 – 3,000 votes of winning. So, on the election night, I went to bed. There was, after all, nothing interesting to watch or listen to.
Quite some misjugement. The SNP may not have won with a large majority, but they didn’t need to. Winning by one vote was enough. It was more than enough. Winning this seat is quite some achievement. The last time the Labour Party didn’t win this seat was in the 1945 General Election. Except that doesn’t really count. Why? Well, it was won by the Independent Labour Party, which broke away from the Labour Party in 1932. The winner of that seat was someone who originally stood for the Labour Party, broke away with the ILP and then rejoined at the end of the 1940s. Basically, the Labour Party, in their history, with the exception of this rather misleasding exception, have never lost this seat. The SNP have never recorded more than 20% of the vote in the area of Glasgow East.
On Thursday, that was thrown out of the window. Gordon Brown can grit his teeth and say that it was down to Scottish issues, like the lack of a Labour leader in Scotland, but everyone knows that is rubbish. The voters of Glasgow East don’t care about that. It’s not even as if the candidate wasn’t known in the area. The Labour Party needs to stop blaming every loss on exceptional circumstances.
This does not, of course, mean to say that the SNP will hold this seat at the next election. Given the size of their majority, that is highly unlikely. However, as they have shown in Hamilton and Govan before, once they win a seat, they don’t give it up easily. They are an electoral force with exceptional sticking power.
The Labour Party cannot claim to be the party of the poor. The Labour Party is not the party of the poor. It should not be the party of the poor. It may make me sound like a one-nation Tory, but I don’t really care. Labour go on about the many not the few, but at the same time, talk about “natural” Labour areas. This is not how it should be, and especially now. The problem with relying on your “natural” vote is that when that vote shifts somewhere else, you’re in big trouble.
The best thing the Labour Party can do right now is listen to the unions. They need the money the unions are offering, but in order to do so, they need to agree to a number of the unions’ demands. And quite frankly, when one of them is universal free school meals, they may find that they find some much-needed support.
People aren’t just going against Labour because of difficult economic circumstances. It’s not just Scottish issues. It’s not just a resurgent Conservative Party. It’s not just because Labour have been in power for so long. It’s not just because they don’t like Gordon Brown. It’s because they just don’t see Gordon Brown, or the Labour Party, taking the country forward.
If, however, they see real ideas, like free school meals, or the People’s Rail, then maybe, just maybe, they might change. People don’t vote out parties simply because they get old and boring. They vote them out because they think they’re old and boring because they run out of real ideas and start spewing out rubbish, like hospital stab visits.
The Labour Party should be thankful to Barack Obama. He has completely overshadowed the loss in Glasgow East. The Labour Party, outside of Scotland at least, will get away with this. Just like they did in Haltemprice and Howden, which didn’t do enough to set the political world on fire (sadly). Just like in Henley, where they could say they never do well anyway. But there comes a time when people think they’re not being taken seriously any more. I fear that Glasgow East is the sign of an electorate who think they’re not being taken seriously – that their votes are “in the bag”. Let this be a lesson – they’re not.